GLOBAL FLEET AND MRO MARKET FORECAST 2023-2033 – OliverWyman

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Synthèse de Beesnest : Zoom sur la flotte mondiale et le marché de la maintenance aéronautique

L’étude « Fleet and MRO Forecast 2023-2033 » réalisée par le cabinet de conseil Oliver Wyman, analyse les tendances du marché de l’aviation commerciale pour les prochaines années. L’étude prévoit une croissance annuelle moyenne de la flotte aérienne mondiale de 2,9%, pour atteindre plus de 36 000 avions commerciaux d’ici 2033. Le marché de la maintenance et de la réparation des avions (MRO – maintenance, repair, and overhaul) serait amené à connaitre elle aussi une forte croissance de 2.9% également afin d’atteindre près de 125 Mds $ d’ici 2033 (estimé à 94 Mds $ en 2023). L’étude donne alors les tendances de la flotte mondiale et du MRO en détaillant les différentes activités et facteurs (cargo, guerre en Ukraine, prix du jet fuel…). 

Ce qu'il faut retenir de l'étude :

  • The aviation industry mostly recovered from the COVID-19 crisis even with the Ukrainian conflict as 98% of the aircraft are flying compared to the pre-pandemic situation (page 5 of the study).
  • The consulting firm Oliver Wyman predicts an increase of 33% of the fleet by 2033 with a compound aggregate growth rate of 2.9%. This means that number of aircraft is expected to be over 36,000 (page 5 of the study). A chart “Exhibit 17: Global fleet forecast by aircraft class, 2023–2033” is provided in order to better understand the CAGR of each aircraft class (page 34).
  • Concerning MRO (maintenance, repair, and overhaul), the segment is expected to reach USD 125 billion by 2033 (also with a CAGR of 2.9%) compared to USD 94 billion in 2022-2023 (page 5 of the study).
  • However, aviation is confronted with several issues such as:
    • A lack of qualified workers: commercial airline pilots and aircraft mechanics. These lacks already impacted traffic around the world and are likely to be a liability for the sector in the future.
    • Suppliers have trouble maintaining their deadlines with orders even if the backlog of manufacturers (OEMs) is still growing. The consulting firm forecasts around 20,600 new production aircraft to be delivered by 2033 (page 6)
    • High operating costs, emissions, and geopolitical tensions (Russia and China) are also elements to bear in mind and that can impact the industry.
  • The study provides a very complete table called “FLEET AND MRO FORECAST SUMMARY» (page 9).
  • The Ukrainian conflict will have a strong impact on Russian aviation. Russia only represents 3% of the global fleet and MRO demand (page 12).
  • The study provides a chart called “Exhibit 1: 2023 to 2033 projections for traffic growth and gross domestic product” (page 14).

Focus on fleet forecast:

  • The study also provides a table called “Exhibit 2: Expected recoveries for fleets and demand by region, indexed to year-end 2019” (page 15).
  • Concerning the global fleet, a chart is provided “Exhibit 7: Monthly in-service fleet, 2019–2026” (page 21) and enables us to see the impact of COVID-19 on the global fleet that was stable at around 27,000 aircraft before 2020 before dropping to almost 12,500 aircraft in service in 2020.
  • The “Exhibit 8: Projected global fleet changes, 2023–2033” gives several key figures on the passenger fleet and cargo fleet (page 22). E.g., 972 passengers-to-freighters (P2F) could see the light between 2023 and 2033. The “Exhibit 18: Passenger and cargo fleet forecasts, 2023–2033” also gives more information about the passenger and cargo fleet forecast (page 35).
  • The share of widebodies in the fleet is expected to decrease slightly to 19% (20% in 2022) by 2033 (page 23).
  • Aircraft deliveries are expected to increase over time as the chart “Exhibit 10: Aircraft production and delivery actuals and forecasts, 2019–2032” shows (page 25). Airbus could reach 59% of the narrowbody aircraft production by 2032 (page 26). For more information concerning narrowbody aircraft models deliveries, please refer to “Exhibit 11: Projected deliveries of narrowbody aircraft by platform, 2023–2032” (page 27) while the A320 neo family and the 737Max family will represent 85% of the deliveries. Indeed, these new-generation aircraft provide a 15% to 20% improvement in fuel efficiency (page 30).
  • 2020 was an impressive year for aircraft retirement (more than 1,200 retirements) while the number prior to covid was almost half (650). However, the number of aircraft retirement is expected to increase and reach 760 annually by 2033 (page 27).
  • In 2020, the average age of the global fleet was 11.5 years, and the chart “Exhibit 14: Global in-service fleet segmented by age in years” provides more details by ranges of ages (page 31).
  • The study also gives a view of the future market share by region with a focus on some countries such as China, Russia, and India through “Exhibit 20: Fleet market share by region, 2020–2033” (page 39).

Focus on the MRO forecast:

  • The global MRO (maintenance, repair, and overhaul) market increased by 18% in 2022 in order to reach USD 77 billion and its spending is expected to amount to USD 94 billion in 2023.
  • The study provides a forecast of 10 years through “Exhibit 22: MRO market forecast, 2019–2033” (page 44).
  • Maintenance and Repair labour shortage could impact negatively the sector (this is already visible in North America).
  • In the future, at the end of the period forecasted, it is likely that the CAGR of MRO set at 1.9% will decrease to 1.5%.
  • The study provides an analysis of MRO by region (pages 47 to 49).
  • Finally, the study from the consulting firm gives an overview of MRO Market Segments (Airframe MRO, Engine MRO, line and component MRO. The “Exhibit 26: Total MRO demand forecast by segment, 2023 and 2033” provides details on the 4 segments (page 52).

Veuillez noter qu’il ne s’agit pas d’une liste exhaustive de toutes les informations contenues dans le rapport, mais plutôt d’un résumé de certains points et chiffres clés. Pour plus d’informations, veuillez lire le rapport complet.

Informations sur l'étude

Notation de l'étude
5/5

Les informations contenues dans la synthèse d’études et de rapports produite par Beesnest sont fournies à titre informatif uniquement et ne constituent pas des conseils professionnels. Les études et les rapports utilisés pour produire cette synthèse proviennent d’autres organismes et n’ont pas été rédigés par Beesnest. L’exactitude, l’exhaustivité ou la pertinence de ces informations ne peut pas être garanties par Beesnest qui n’est pas responsable des erreurs, omissions ou imprécisions dans cette synthèse. En utilisant cette synthèse, vous reconnaissez que vous le faites à vos propres risques et que vous êtes responsable de la prise de décision qui en découle. Beesnest n’est pas responsable de tout préjudice ou dommage résultant de l’utilisation de ces informations.

Beesnest Analyste ayant rédigé la synthèse de l'étude :

Pierre DUBOS

Après des études à Paris et à Londres en management et international business au sein de l’Université Paris Dauphine, Pierre a cofondé Beesnest. Sa passion ? L’aviation ! De nombreuses expériences d’analyste dans le monde du conseil et la banque d’investissement en financement aéronautique lui ont permis de mieux connaître le secteur. Pierre est actuellement en train de passer sa License de Pilote Privé (PPL) à Saint-Cyr (LFPZ).

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