Synthèse de Beesnest : l'avenir de l'immobilier en Europe est-il compromis par la guerre, l'inflation, et le coût de l'énergie ?
Le PWC nous livre des analyses inédites sur l’immobilier en Europe, à partir d’une enquête menée auprès de 1000 professionnels du secteur dans 20 pays différents.
1- Business Environment :
- Real estate leaders note that political instability and economic uncertainty are replacing pandemic-related concerns. The year 2023 will be characterized by real estate investors favoring long-term stability and paying particular attention to how the industry conducts its business.
- 91% say that inflation is the main economic concern for businesses in 2023.
- 79% state that international political instability is a source of concern.
- 93% see ESG as the number one factor for successful organizational transformation.
- The big fear is over the pressure on real estate values, which has been well signaled in the listed sector as discounts to net asset value continue to deepen.
2- Inflation :
- Inflation is expected to impact all aspects of the real estate sector.
- Supply chain issues during the pandemic led to a rise in prices of many materials, such as construction wood.
- Supply chains remain disrupted and are now under additional pressure from rising energy prices, making transportation more expensive.
- A drop in real estate values is now considered inevitable, and a widening price gap is expected between prime and secondary assets.
- With the prospect of a drop in real estate values, next year could be an excellent buying opportunity for investors who have not yet diversified their assets enough and have not yet invested enough in real estate.
3- Political instability :
- The second most significant socio-political concern of the respondents to the survey is international political instability (79%), with European and national political turbulence causing concerns.
- Only half of those surveyed this year expect to be net buyers of European real estate next year. This figure is down from last year (59%) and slightly more pessimistic than during the pandemic when 55% were net buyers.
4- ESG and sustainability
- For 93% of surveyed sector leaders, managing a company sustainably in environmental and social terms is the most important factor for successful organizational transformation in real estate over the next 20 years.
- ESG is not simply a “nice to have” for companies as regulators, investors, and current and potential employees all demand improved performance in these areas.
- Nearly 90% of respondents underline the importance of creating social impact alongside financial return over the next 20 years, while 60% identify the importance of increasing diversity within their organizations.
5- Sectors to watch :
- New energy infrastructure tops the sector rankings in Emerging Trends Europe for the second consecutive year due to historically high energy prices and the prospect of shortages over winter.
- Life science is another sector that is small but growing fast, particularly in the UK, and rides high in this year’s charts in second place.
- Data centres, in third place, continue to see increased demand for space.
- Social housing, in fourth place this year compared with 12th last year, has overtaken affordable housing, which sits at seventh place versus sixth last time.
- Retirement/senior living is the highest-rated of the residential sub-sectors for investment, up from seventh place last year.
6- Cities to watch :
- National and international transport connectivity is a key influence on cities’ rankings, with Paris, Madrid, Lisbon, and Copenhagen rising up the rankings this year.
- For the second consecutive year, London remains the most favored city in Europe for its overall prospects, especially for offices and logistics.
- Paris takes over second place from Berlin this year, with its strong transport links and anticipation of a boost from the 2024 Olympic Games being key factors.
- Berlin has slipped one place down the rankings this year, reflecting the country’s dependency on Russian gas supplies and the potential impact on inflation and the wider economy.
- Madrid, one of the fastest-growing cities in Europe, rises from sixth to fourth place, with urbanization continuing apace due to inward migration.
- German cities remain in the top 10, but there is not the same unwavering positive sentiment as in previous years. Frankfurt slips three places to rank seventh.
- Amsterdam rises one place to rank sixth, based on its strong economy and a reputation for liveability. The city has a history of repurposing that has helped rebalance the volumes of office and residential stock.
Veuillez noter qu’il ne s’agit pas d’une liste exhaustive de toutes les informations contenues dans le rapport, mais plutôt d’un résumé de certains points et chiffres clés. Pour plus d’informations, veuillez lire le rapport complet.
Informations sur l'étude
- Cabinet de conseil : Pwc
- Date de publication : Janvier 2023
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